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What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Markets

  • 20% or above

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • 30% or above

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $12 · Liquidity $12

  • 50% or above

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $1.3 · Liquidity $1.3

  • 100% or above

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • 10% or above

    • Yes95%
    • No6%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • 15% or above

    • Yes59%
    • No41%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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