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Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

Markets

  • Formal 16-year extension

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $4.7K

  • U.S. withdrawal notice

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $2.2K

  • Canadian withdrawal notice

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Formal USMCA amendment

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Mexican withdrawal notice

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $748.5 · Liquidity $738.5

  • Trilateral revised deal

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $695.7 · Liquidity $695.7

  • U.S.–Mexico interim agreement

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $572.3 · Liquidity $537.6

  • U.S.–Canada interim agreement

    • Yes26%
    • No74%

    Volume $401.4 · Liquidity $35

Resolution rules

If the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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