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2028 popular vote margin of victory?

Markets

  • Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $24.7K · Liquidity $18.3K

  • Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $16.4K · Liquidity $14.2K

  • Democratic by 9.0% or more

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $16.2K · Liquidity $12.6K

  • Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $11.4K · Liquidity $9.1K

  • Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $10.6K · Liquidity $5.5K

  • Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $9.4K · Liquidity $2.7K

  • Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $9.2K · Liquidity $4.7K

  • Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $8.3K · Liquidity $5.5K

  • Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $7.9K · Liquidity $3.9K

  • Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $7K · Liquidity $4.4K

  • Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $5.9K · Liquidity $3.6K

  • Republican by 7.0% to 7.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5.6K · Liquidity $3.9K

  • Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $5.2K · Liquidity $3.6K

  • Republican by 4.0% to 4.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $3.1K

  • Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $4.7K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • Republican by 3.0% to 3.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $4.7K · Liquidity $2.4K

  • Republican by 2.0% to 2.99%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $4.5K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Republican by 5.0% to 5.99%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $3K

  • Republican by 8.0% to 8.99%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Republican by 9.0% or more

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $2.6K

Resolution rules

If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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