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When will P vs NP be resolved?

Markets

  • Before 2030

    • Yes57%
    • No43%

    Volume $457.6 · Liquidity $343.5

  • Before 2035

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $2.3 · Liquidity $2.3

  • Before 2028

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Before 2040

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $0.4 · Liquidity $0.4

  • Before 2027

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Before 2029

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If P versus NP Problem in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2027 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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