Tech & Science Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi markets on AI, space, tech launches and scientific milestones.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 23%
24h vol $97K · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Claude: 50%
24h vol $65.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Above 6: 99%
24h vol $38.1K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
Denver, CO: 94%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 0: 18%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
Before January 1, 2027: 7%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
5 or more: 7%
24h vol $6.4K · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
No: 98%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of data centers in Pennsylvania this year?
At least 180: 79%
24h vol $4.6K · Ends Jan 7, 2027
When will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 33%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tesla Optimus released this year?
No: 93%
24h vol $4.5K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Before Dec 31, 2026: 52%
24h vol $4.3K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
Before 2027: 25%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Above 120: 99%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Measles cases in 2026?
Above 5000: 97%
24h vol $3.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 75%
24h vol $3K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
AI capability growth this year?
At least 1540 score: 52%
24h vol $2.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Where will Waymo operate before 2028?
Sacramento, CA: 88%
24h vol $2K · Ends Dec 31, 2027
SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
Before Dec 11, 2026: 94%
24h vol $2K · Ends Dec 11, 2026
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
No: 86%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026
Meta: 90%
24h vol $1.7K · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Central African Republic: 64%
24h vol $1.5K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Meta: 12%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Next Gemini Pro model release
Before Dec 1, 2026: 9%
24h vol $940.2 · Ends Dec 1, 2026
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
4: 46%
24h vol $782.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026?
Nevada: 90%
24h vol $553.1 · Ends Jan 31, 2027
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 12%
24h vol $464.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of US data centers in 2026?
At least 4,800: 91%
24h vol $408 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Clip-on device for clothing: 7%
24h vol $267.7 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $229.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
before 2027: 96%
24h vol $216.7 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
United States: 57%
24h vol $203 · Ends Jan 1, 2031
When will AI score above 170 on Epoch Capabilities Index?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 96%
24h vol $200 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
No: 93%
24h vol $192.7 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $157.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?
No: 97%
24h vol $155.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
No significant difference: 44%
24h vol $153.6 · Ends Dec 31, 2027
Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
Claude: 20%
24h vol $146.6 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Number of data centers in California this year?
At least 300: 90%
24h vol $115 · Ends Jan 7, 2027
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
At least 50%: 99%
24h vol $107.2 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
When will xAI release Grok 5?
Before 2027: 45%
24h vol $91.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2028?
Yes: 69%
24h vol $80.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes: 55%
24h vol $78 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
NASA lands on the moon?
Before 2030: 44%
24h vol $64 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
No: 80%
24h vol $61.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
Above 3: 91%
24h vol $55.4 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
Before Dec 31, 2027: 90%
24h vol $55 · Ends Dec 31, 2027
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?
Before 2028: 82%
24h vol $48 · Ends Jan 1, 2028