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What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Markets

  • Oil

    • Yes61%
    • No39%

    Volume $51K · Liquidity $11.4K

  • Solar

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $28.8K · Liquidity $9.9K

  • Nuclear

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $20.2K · Liquidity $7.3K

  • Wind

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $9.3K · Liquidity $4.6K

  • Hydropower

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $7.8K · Liquidity $4K

  • Other renewables

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $7.5K · Liquidity $3.5K

  • Modern biofuels

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $6.9K · Liquidity $3.4K

  • Gas

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $6.3K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Traditional biomass

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5.4K · Liquidity $2.4K

  • Coal

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $2.8K

Resolution rules

If Traditional biomass is the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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