Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Markets
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- Yes66%
- No34%
Volume $21.1K · Liquidity $4.1K
Resolution rules
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More World markets
Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?
No: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2050
US meets its climate goals?
By 2030: 16%
24h vol $2.1 · Ends Dec 31, 2035
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
No: 73%
24h vol $2 · Ends Dec 31, 2035
EU meets its 2030 climate goals?
No: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2032
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Oil: 61%
24h vol $151.1 · Ends Dec 30, 2032
India meets its 2030 climate goals?
Yes: 70%
24h vol $2.4 · Ends Dec 31, 2031
EV market share in 2030?
Above 10%: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 1, 2030
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
No: 71%
24h vol $35 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
Before 2029: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
No: 88%
24h vol $17.5 · Ends Dec 31, 2028
Rain in Paris on Sep 3, 2027?
No: 60%
24h vol $0.8 · Ends Sep 4, 2027
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
2.5°C to 2.9°C: 44%
24h vol $3K · Ends Aug 15, 2027