US imports of goods from China in 2026
Markets
Below $240 billion
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.5K
Below $280 billion
- Yes59%
- No41%
Volume $962.2 · Liquidity $642.3
Below $300 billion
- Yes93%
- No7%
Volume $711 · Liquidity $166
Below $260 billion
- Yes26%
- No74%
Volume $585.6 · Liquidity $456.7
Below $220 billion
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $314 · Liquidity $288
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $220 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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