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How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Markets

  • Above 5%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $344.3K · Liquidity $124.6K

  • Above 6%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $221.1K · Liquidity $78.5K

  • Above 7%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $119K · Liquidity $62K

  • Above 4.5%

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $35.2K · Liquidity $10.6K

  • Above 8%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $21.1K · Liquidity $10.1K

  • Above 9%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $18.3K · Liquidity $7.5K

  • Above 10%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $13.1K · Liquidity $5.4K

  • Above 6.5%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $8.3K · Liquidity $5.6K

  • Above 5.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $7.7K · Liquidity $5.4K

  • Above 4.8%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $6.2K · Liquidity $3K

  • Above 17%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • Above 15%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $942

  • Above 20%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $3.7K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • Above 12%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $2K

Resolution rules

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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