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US unemployment rate at year-end 2026

Markets

  • Above 4.5%

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $3.5K

  • Above 5.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Above 5.5%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Above 4.0%

    • Yes74%
    • No26%

    Volume $404.4 · Liquidity $401.1

  • Above 3.0%

    • Yes97%
    • No4%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 3.5%

    • Yes96%
    • No4%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 6.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 6.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 7.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 7.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 8.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 8.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 9.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 9.5%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 10.0%

    • Yes3%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2026 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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