Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Markets
Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?
- Yes17%
- No83%
Volume $54.7K · Liquidity $10K
Resolution rules
If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost?
At least $500: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Courts consider Apple a monopoly?
No: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO?
Troy Rohrbaugh: 52%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
When will any company achieve AGI?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 81%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Jan 1, 2031
Will Apple win its case against OpenAI?
Yes: 57%
24h vol $6 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Will Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
Yes: 56%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 21, 2028
Meta headcount in 2026
Above 65000: 99%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Mar 31, 2028
Spotify headcount in 2026
Above 7100: 86%
24h vol $1K · Ends Mar 31, 2028
Tesla headcount in 2026
Above 120000: 92%
24h vol $8.4 · Ends Mar 31, 2028
Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
Above 560: 97%
24h vol $11.7K · Ends Mar 31, 2028
Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026
Above 225 million: 87%
24h vol $6.8K · Ends Mar 31, 2028
United Airlines passengers flown in 2026
Above 178 million: 99%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Mar 31, 2028