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How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

Markets

  • Above 40

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $61.2K · Liquidity $44.1K

  • Above 60

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $38.1K · Liquidity $22.6K

  • Above 70

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $23.1K · Liquidity $14.8K

  • Above 90

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $20K · Liquidity $12.9K

  • Above 30

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $17K · Liquidity $10.9K

  • Above 50

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $16.1K · Liquidity $7.6K

  • Above 80

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $14.2K · Liquidity $10.2K

  • Above 100

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $12.6K · Liquidity $10.1K

  • Above 120

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1K

  • Above 110

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $541 · Liquidity $316

Resolution rules

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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