Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus-McCormick out as Representatives?
Markets
Will the number of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick who leave the U.S. House of Representatives (with an actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE contract) be exactly 4 before November 3, 2026?
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $7.9K · Liquidity $3.6K
Resolution rules
If all four of Representatives Tony Gonzales, Eric Swalwell, Cory Mills, and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the U.S. House of Representatives (based on actual departure date, per EFFECTIVELEAVE) before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
At least 9: 27%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7%
24h vol $444.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
FTC investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?
No: 92%
24h vol $58 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Before Jan 2027: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 2, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 210: 99%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 14: 90%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 10: 96%
24h vol $217 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 29%
24h vol $216.7 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?
No: 94%
24h vol $110.2 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 22%
24h vol $77.5 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?
No: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027