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California's 40th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Ken Calvert, 10+ pts

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Ken Calvert, 5+ pts

    • Yes43%
    • No57%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Ken Calvert, 15+ pts

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Calvert, 20+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Calvert, 25+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Calvert, 30+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Calvert, 1+ pts

    • Yes52%
    • No49%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Ken Calvert wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 40th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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