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Iowa's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • McGowan, 30+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $153

  • McGowan, 12+ pts

    • Yes83%
    • No17%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $374

  • McGowan, 33+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $486 · Liquidity $0

  • McGowan, 21+ pts

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $60 · Liquidity $60

  • McGowan, 27+ pts

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $31.4 · Liquidity $31.4

  • McGowan, 24+ pts

    • Yes42%
    • No58%

    Volume $4.3 · Liquidity $1.7

  • McGowan, 6+ pts

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGowan, 9+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGowan, 36+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGowan, 15+ pts

    • Yes75%
    • No25%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGowan, 18+ pts

    • Yes64%
    • No37%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Iowa's 4th District by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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