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Louisiana's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Republicans, 45+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $1K

  • Republicans, 33+ pts

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $15

  • Republicans, 39+ pts

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $903.5 · Liquidity $98.5

  • Republicans, 42+ pts

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $822.9 · Liquidity $807.9

  • Republicans, 48+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $647 · Liquidity $47

  • Republicans, 51+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $647 · Liquidity $200

  • Republicans, 18+ pts

    • Yes73%
    • No27%

    Volume $406 · Liquidity $406

  • Republicans, 36+ pts

    • Yes62%
    • No38%

    Volume $126.1 · Liquidity $126.1

  • Republicans, 30+ pts

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $15 · Liquidity $15

  • Republicans, 57+ pts

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Republicans, 9+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 12+ pts

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 15+ pts

    • Yes80%
    • No20%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 21+ pts

    • Yes64%
    • No37%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 24+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No47%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 27+ pts

    • Yes45%
    • No56%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 54+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Louisiana's 4th District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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