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Texas's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Fallon, 26+ pts

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $640 · Liquidity $640

  • Fallon, 11+ pts

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $186 · Liquidity $181

  • Fallon, 17+ pts

    • Yes49%
    • No51%

    Volume $100 · Liquidity $100

  • Fallon, 8+ pts

    • Yes83%
    • No17%

    Volume $55 · Liquidity $55

  • Fallon, 20+ pts

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $40 · Liquidity $40

  • Fallon, 14+ pts

    • Yes78%
    • No22%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Fallon, 23+ pts

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Fallon, 29+ pts

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Fallon, 32+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Texas's 4th District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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