Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
No: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 30, 2036
Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?
No: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2035
New York 15 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 80K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 14 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 100K: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Connecticut's 4th District margin of victory
Himes, 21+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 13 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 95K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Hampshire 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 260K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 115K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New York 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nevada 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Next Canadian federal election winner?
Liberal Party: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 15, 2030
Alabama Lieutenant Governor winner?
John Wahl: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nevada 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Illinois 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Washington's 9th District margin of victory
Smith, 36+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?
No: 77%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 13%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
New Mexico Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 590K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Naples mayoral election winner?
Center-left: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 12, 2028
California's 43rd District margin of victory
Waters, 48+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 42nd District margin of victory
Garcia, 14+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS treat trademark strength as a factual question?
Yes: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
Will SCOTUS let parents challenge laws that displace them from their children’s gender-transition decisions?
Yes: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
New Mexico 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 180K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Mexico 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 160K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Mexico 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 250K: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will John Thune run for reelection?
Yes: 74%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 28, 2028
New Jersey 12 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 155K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Dec 31, 2029
New Jersey 11 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 10 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 100K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 09 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 115K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
No: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
Who will DSA endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
No one: 45%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
New Jersey 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 75K: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 150K: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 03 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Jersey 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 140K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will the U.S. have a Cabinet-level AI official?
Before Jan 1, 2029: 31%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Washington Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029