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What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

Markets

  • At least 5000

    • Yes49%
    • No51%

    Volume $44K · Liquidity $10.1K

  • At least 2000

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $29.7K · Liquidity $10.7K

  • At least 3000

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • At least 2500

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $836.6

  • At least 4500

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $519.7

  • At least 4000

    • Yes71%
    • No29%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $400.2

  • At least 3500

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $943.2 · Liquidity $296.4

Resolution rules

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2000, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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