Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
Markets
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $15.9K · Liquidity $9.8K
Resolution rules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More World markets
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
No: 73%
24h vol $1 · Ends Dec 31, 2035
Will the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
Before 2029: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
No: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2030
Rain in Paris on Sep 3, 2027?
No: 60%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 4, 2027
EV market share in 2030?
Above 10%: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 1, 2030
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
2.5°C to 2.9°C: 56%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends Aug 15, 2027
Major volcano eruption in 2026?
At least 1: 60%
24h vol $22 · Ends Jun 29, 2027
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
At least 2.5°C: 79%
24h vol $200 · Ends Apr 5, 2027
What will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
At least 2.0°C: 86%
24h vol $23.7 · Ends Apr 5, 2027
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027?
Above 15 inches: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Will it rain in Ontario, California on Feb 27, 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $3.9K · Ends Feb 28, 2027
India meets its 2030 climate goals?
Yes: 70%
24h vol $2.4 · Ends Dec 31, 2031