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What will Mark Carney say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Markets

  • China / Chinese

    • Yes53%
    • No47%

    Volume $119 · Liquidity $119

  • Tariff

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $111.6 · Liquidity $106.6

  • Rare Earth / Mineral

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $105.2 · Liquidity $105.2

  • USMCA / CUSMA

    • Yes49%
    • No51%

    Volume $40 · Liquidity $40

  • Ukraine / Ukrainian

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $17 · Liquidity $17

  • Trump (3+ times)

    • Yes21%
    • No80%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability

    • Yes57%
    • No43%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline

    • Yes71%
    • No30%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

    • Yes72%
    • No28%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Pipeline

    • Yes31%
    • No70%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Defense / Defence

    • Yes76%
    • No25%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • NATO

    • Yes81%
    • No20%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Arctic

    • Yes71%
    • No30%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Nuclear

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Lumber

    • Yes26%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • 51st State

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Event does not qualify

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Mark Carney says Tariff as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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