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What will Palmer Luckey say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Markets

  • Manufacture / Manufacturing

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $161.4 · Liquidity $156.4

  • Submarine

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $105 · Liquidity $105

  • Drone

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $105 · Liquidity $105

  • China / Chinese

    • Yes77%
    • No23%

    Volume $16 · Liquidity $16

  • Event does not qualify

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

  • Oculus

    • Yes56%
    • No45%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Meta

    • Yes21%
    • No80%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Meridian

    • Yes51%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Iran / Iranian

    • Yes32%
    • No69%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

    • Yes76%
    • No25%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Taiwan

    • Yes31%
    • No70%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Autonomous / Autonomy

    • Yes66%
    • No35%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Trump (3+ times)

    • Yes41%
    • No60%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Pentagon

    • Yes30%
    • No71%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Lattice

    • Yes26%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Arsenal

    • Yes26%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ukraine / Ukrainian

    • Yes41%
    • No60%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • IPO

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Palmer Luckey says Iran / Iranian as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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