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US government budget balance in 2026

Markets

  • Above -8.5% of GDP

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $12.2K · Liquidity $2.7K

  • Above -7.5% of GDP

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $11.8K · Liquidity $3.6K

  • Above -8.0% of GDP

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $3.9K

  • Above -7.0% of GDP

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $1K

  • Above -9.0% of GDP

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $887.6

  • Above -6.5% of GDP

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $0.4 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Above -6.0% of GDP

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.0% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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