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China’s government budget balance in 2026

Markets

  • Above -7.5% of GDP

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $608

  • Above -8.0% of GDP

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • Above -6.5% of GDP

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $212 · Liquidity $53

  • Above -7.0% of GDP

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $181 · Liquidity $50

  • Above -9.5% of GDP

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $92 · Liquidity $46

  • Above -9.0% of GDP

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $0.5 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Above -8.5% of GDP

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $0.3 · Liquidity $0.1

Resolution rules

If China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -9.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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