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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026

Markets

  • Above -3.5% of GDP

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $250.6 · Liquidity $25.2

  • Above -3.0% of GDP

    • Yes73%
    • No27%

    Volume $1.4 · Liquidity $1.2

  • Above -4.0% of GDP

    • Yes99%
    • No1%

    Volume $0.5 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Above -2.5% of GDP

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $0.4 · Liquidity $0.2

  • Above -2.0% of GDP

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $0.2 · Liquidity $0.1

  • Above -4.5% of GDP

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above -1.5% of GDP

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -4.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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