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Alaska Senate election margin of victory

Markets

  • Dan Sullivan, 0-3%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $17.9K · Liquidity $4.8K

  • Mary Peltola, 3-6%

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $11.6K · Liquidity $9.1K

  • Mary Peltola, 0-3%

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $9.8K · Liquidity $4.5K

  • Dan Sullivan, 6-9%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $6.5K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Dan Sullivan, ≥12%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $5.5K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Dan Sullivan, 9-12%

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $4.9K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Mary Peltola, 6-9%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $2.8K

  • Dan Sullivan, 3-6%

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Mary Peltola, ≥12%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Mary Peltola, 9-12%

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $2K

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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