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Which G7 leader will leave office next?

Markets

  • Friedrich Merz

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $9.3K · Liquidity $5.2K

  • Donald Trump

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $8.6K · Liquidity $6.7K

  • Emmanuel Macron

    • Yes72%
    • No28%

    Volume $3.4K · Liquidity $2.1K

  • Giorgia Meloni

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Andy Burnham

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $602.8

  • Sanae Takaichi

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $750

  • Mark Carney

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $870.3

Resolution rules

If the individual holding the title of Prime Minister of Canada at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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