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Texas Senate: margin of victory

Markets

  • Ken Paxton, 0-2%

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $219.2 · Liquidity $219.2

  • James Talarico, 0-2%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $115.7 · Liquidity $115.7

  • James Talarico, 2-4%

    • Yes17%
    • No84%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • James Talarico, 4-6%

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • James Talarico, 6-8%

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • James Talarico, ≥8%

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Paxton, 2-4%

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Paxton, 4-6%

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Paxton, 6-8%

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Ken Paxton, ≥8%

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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