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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)

Markets

  • Democrats, ≥10%

    • Yes43%
    • No57%

    Volume $18K · Liquidity $6.9K

  • Democrats, ≥8%

    • Yes66%
    • No34%

    Volume $16.6K · Liquidity $10.8K

  • Democrats, ≥6%

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $9.2K · Liquidity $4.7K

  • Democrats, ≥12%

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $3K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Democrats, ≥2%

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $2.7K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Democrats, ≥4%

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Democrats, ≥16%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $579.6 · Liquidity $171.6

  • Democrats, ≥14%

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $548.3 · Liquidity $348.3

  • Democrats, ≥11%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

Resolution rules

If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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