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Arizona's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Stanton, 25+ pts

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $101.4

  • Stanton, 16+ pts

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Stanton, 4+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No8%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $151

  • Stanton, 28+ pts

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $291

  • Stanton, 19+ pts

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $435

  • Stanton, 22+ pts

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $23

  • Stanton, 13+ pts

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $503.7 · Liquidity $499

  • Stanton, 10+ pts

    • Yes78%
    • No22%

    Volume $20 · Liquidity $20

  • Stanton, 7+ pts

    • Yes88%
    • No13%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Stanton, 31+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 4th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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