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California's 3rd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Bera, 23+ pts

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $16 · Liquidity $16

  • Bera, 14+ pts

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $15 · Liquidity $15

  • Bera, 26+ pts

    • Yes35%
    • No65%

    Volume $13 · Liquidity $13

  • Bera, 17+ pts

    • Yes73%
    • No27%

    Volume $11 · Liquidity $11

  • Bera, 29+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $4 · Liquidity $4

  • Bera, 5+ pts

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Bera, 8+ pts

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Bera, 11+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Bera, 20+ pts

    • Yes66%
    • No35%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Bera, 35+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Bera, 32+ pts

    • Yes17%
    • No84%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 3rd District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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