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Who will be a part of the next government of New Zealand?

Markets

  • Greens

    • Yes54%
    • No46%

    Volume $201 · Liquidity $101

  • Labour

    • Yes64%
    • No36%

    Volume $196 · Liquidity $162

  • National

    • Yes59%
    • No41%

    Volume $187 · Liquidity $1

  • New Zealand First

    • Yes54%
    • No46%

    Volume $148 · Liquidity $56

  • Te Pāti Māori

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $56 · Liquidity $44

  • ACT

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $10 · Liquidity $0

  • Opportunity

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If a coalition that includes National makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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