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AI capability growth this year?

Markets

  • At least 1520 score

    Closed
    • Yes99%
    • No1%

    Volume $143.5K · Liquidity $42.8K

  • At least 1550 score

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $65.8K · Liquidity $21.1K

  • At least 1530 score

    Closed
    • Yes99%
    • No1%

    Volume $65.1K · Liquidity $48.8K

  • At least 1600 score

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $22.5K · Liquidity $6.7K

  • At least 1540 score

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $17.7K · Liquidity $5.3K

  • At least 1650 score

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5.5K · Liquidity $2.9K

  • At least 1750 score

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $2.8K

  • At least 1700 score

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $840.2

Resolution rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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