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Fed funds rate at end of 2031

Markets

  • Above 5.00%

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $990 · Liquidity $251

  • Above 2.25%

    • Yes68%
    • No32%

    Volume $364 · Liquidity $106

  • Above 1.00%

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $362 · Liquidity $173

  • Above 6.00%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $333 · Liquidity $131

  • Above 4.00%

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $322 · Liquidity $191

  • Above 5.50%

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $255 · Liquidity $29

  • Above 1.25%

    • Yes77%
    • No23%

    Volume $252 · Liquidity $153

  • Above 2.50%

    • Yes71%
    • No29%

    Volume $233 · Liquidity $89

  • Above 3.75%

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $222 · Liquidity $199

  • Above 1.75%

    • Yes68%
    • No32%

    Volume $194 · Liquidity $33

  • Above 4.75%

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $189 · Liquidity $44

  • Above 1.50%

    • Yes59%
    • No41%

    Volume $170.2 · Liquidity $45

  • Above 3.00%

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $130 · Liquidity $92

  • Above 5.25%

    • Yes30%
    • No70%

    Volume $128 · Liquidity $63

  • Above 3.50%

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $123 · Liquidity $71

  • Above 3.25%

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $101 · Liquidity $48

  • Above 2.00%

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $79.2 · Liquidity $40.1

  • Above 4.50%

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $72 · Liquidity $72

  • Above 5.75%

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $22 · Liquidity $10

  • Above 4.25%

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $14 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 2.75%

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $9 · Liquidity $7

Resolution rules

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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