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Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Markets

  • Above 8%

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Above 10%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $16.5 · Liquidity $16.5

  • Above 4%

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 5%

    • Yes75%
    • No25%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 6%

    • Yes67%
    • No33%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 7%

    • Yes60%
    • No40%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Above 2%

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 3%

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 9%

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 11%

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic share of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 2%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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