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Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Hill, 12+ pts

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $800

  • Hill, 15+ pts

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $800 · Liquidity $800

  • Hill, 18+ pts

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $399.2 · Liquidity $399.2

  • Hill, 9+ pts

    • Yes35%
    • No65%

    Volume $231.8 · Liquidity $210.4

  • Hill, 3+ pts

    • Yes74%
    • No26%

    Volume $78.2 · Liquidity $64.9

  • Hill, 6+ pts

    • Yes60%
    • No40%

    Volume $16.3 · Liquidity $16.3

  • Hill, 24+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No92%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Hill, 1+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Hill, 21+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arkansas's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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