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Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

Markets

  • Shah, 5+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No46%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $621.2

  • Shah, 2+ pts

    • Yes60%
    • No40%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $499.2

  • Shah, 8+ pts

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $537.1

  • Shah, 11+ pts

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Shah, 17+ pts

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $802 · Liquidity $56

  • Shah, 14+ pts

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $292 · Liquidity $278

  • Shah, 1+ pts

    • Yes70%
    • No31%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Arizona's 1st District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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