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California's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Mike Thompson, 5+ pts

    • Yes57%
    • No43%

    Volume $460 · Liquidity $455

  • Mike Thompson, 10+ pts

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Mike Thompson, 30+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Mike Thompson, 1+ pts

    • Yes73%
    • No27%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Mike Thompson, 15+ pts

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Mike Thompson, 20+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Mike Thompson, 25+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Mike Thompson wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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