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California's 5th District margin of victory

Markets

  • McClintock, 12+ pts

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • McClintock, 3+ pts

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 6+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 9+ pts

    • Yes66%
    • No34%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 15+ pts

    • Yes37%
    • No63%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 18+ pts

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 21+ pts

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 24+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McClintock, 27+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 5th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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