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California's 11th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Scott Wiener, 4+ pts

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $480 · Liquidity $455

  • Scott Wiener, 12+ pts

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $380 · Liquidity $250

  • Scott Wiener, 16+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $252 · Liquidity $252

  • Scott Wiener, 20+ pts

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $250 · Liquidity $250

  • Scott Wiener, 8+ pts

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $90.7 · Liquidity $82.5

  • Scott Wiener, 1+ pts

    • Yes78%
    • No23%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Scott Wiener wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 11th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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