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California's 12th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Lateefah Simon, 40+ pts

    • Yes78%
    • No22%

    Volume $55 · Liquidity $55

  • Lateefah Simon, 45+ pts

    • Yes67%
    • No33%

    Volume $55 · Liquidity $55

  • Lateefah Simon, 5+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 10+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 15+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 20+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 25+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 30+ pts

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 35+ pts

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 50+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No46%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $50

  • Lateefah Simon, 55+ pts

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Lateefah Simon, 60+ pts

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Lateefah Simon, 65+ pts

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If Lateefah Simon wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 12th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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