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California's 21st District margin of victory

Markets

  • Costa, 14+ pts

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • Costa, 17+ pts

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Costa, 11+ pts

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $308 · Liquidity $303

  • Costa, 20+ pts

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $142 · Liquidity $142

  • Costa, 8+ pts

    • Yes75%
    • No25%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

  • Costa, 23+ pts

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

  • Costa, 2+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Costa, 5+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Costa, 26+ pts

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Costa, 29+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Costa, 32+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 21st District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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