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Connecticut's 5th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Hayes, 27+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $5.2K · Liquidity $2.6K

  • Hayes, 6+ pts

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Hayes, 21+ pts

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $3.4K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Hayes, 9+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Hayes, 18+ pts

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Hayes, 24+ pts

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $785

  • Hayes, 12+ pts

    • Yes67%
    • No33%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Hayes, 15+ pts

    • Yes52%
    • No48%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Hayes, 3+ pts

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $552

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Connecticut's 5th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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