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Iowa's 2nd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Mitchell, 2+ pts

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $716.3 · Liquidity $465

  • Mitchell, 14+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $362 · Liquidity $92

  • Mitchell, 8+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $347.6 · Liquidity $325.6

  • Mitchell, 5+ pts

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $219.7 · Liquidity $180.4

  • Mitchell, 11+ pts

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $1

  • Mitchell, 1+ pts

    • Yes34%
    • No66%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Iowa's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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