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Illinois's 6th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Casten, 5+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No9%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $212

  • Casten, 14+ pts

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $151.3 · Liquidity $151.3

  • Casten, 17+ pts

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $15 · Liquidity $15

  • Casten, 8+ pts

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Casten, 11+ pts

    • Yes73%
    • No28%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Casten, 20+ pts

    • Yes41%
    • No59%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Casten, 23+ pts

    • Yes31%
    • No70%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Casten, 26+ pts

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Casten, 29+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Illinois's 6th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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