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Kansas's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Estes, 23+ pts

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $910.7 · Liquidity $3.9

  • Estes, 8+ pts

    • Yes82%
    • No18%

    Volume $880 · Liquidity $0

  • Estes, 11+ pts

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $691 · Liquidity $141

  • Estes, 20+ pts

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $450 · Liquidity $0

  • Estes, 17+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No46%

    Volume $302.7 · Liquidity $2.7

  • Estes, 26+ pts

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $244 · Liquidity $242

  • Estes, 32+ pts

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $20 · Liquidity $10

  • Estes, 5+ pts

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Estes, 14+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No47%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Estes, 29+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Kansas's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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