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New York's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Gillen, 12+ pts

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $2K

  • Gillen, 15+ pts

    • Yes46%
    • No54%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $966

  • Gillen, 9+ pts

    • Yes74%
    • No26%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $821

  • Gillen, 6+ pts

    • Yes75%
    • No25%

    Volume $859 · Liquidity $539

  • Gillen, 3+ pts

    • Yes86%
    • No14%

    Volume $620 · Liquidity $610

  • Gillen, 18+ pts

    • Yes35%
    • No65%

    Volume $607 · Liquidity $14.3

  • Gillen, 21+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Gillen, 24+ pts

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 4th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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