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New York's 21st District margin of victory

Markets

  • Constantino, 12+ pts

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $829.7

  • Constantino, 24+ pts

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $110

  • Constantino, 15+ pts

    • Yes27%
    • No73%

    Volume $800 · Liquidity $800

  • Constantino, 9+ pts

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $638.7 · Liquidity $573.7

  • Constantino, 6+ pts

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $612.6 · Liquidity $406.6

  • Constantino, 3+ pts

    • Yes57%
    • No43%

    Volume $610.7 · Liquidity $403.4

  • Constantino, 18+ pts

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $300 · Liquidity $300

  • Constantino, 21+ pts

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $97 · Liquidity $42

  • Constantino, 1+ pts

    • Yes70%
    • No31%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 21st District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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