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Washington's 5th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Baumgartner, 8+ pts

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Baumgartner, 5+ pts

    • Yes64%
    • No36%

    Volume $622 · Liquidity $419

  • Baumgartner, 14+ pts

    • Yes34%
    • No66%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Baumgartner, 11+ pts

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $10 · Liquidity $10

  • Baumgartner, 20+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $4 · Liquidity $4

  • Baumgartner, 2+ pts

    • Yes62%
    • No38%

    Volume $0.1 · Liquidity $0.1

  • Baumgartner, 1+ pts

    • Yes82%
    • No18%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Baumgartner, 17+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Baumgartner, 23+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Washington's 5th District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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