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Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?

Markets

  • John Fetterman

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $59.5K · Liquidity $25.3K

  • Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Closed
    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $50.7K · Liquidity $14.2K

  • Lisa Murkowski

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $31.1K · Liquidity $8.4K

  • Thomas Massie

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $13K · Liquidity $4.5K

  • Don Bacon

    • Yes5%
    • No96%

    Volume $9.8K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Henry Cuellar

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $8.8K · Liquidity $3K

Resolution rules

If Marjorie Taylor Greene leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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